Stock Market Crash Frequencies

It's impossible to eliminate the risk that is inherent in the stock market. Therefor it is dangerous to attempt to prevent the market from crashing like on May 6 as the regulators are trying to do. Though 10% drops are rare, their average frequency over long periods of time is quite predictable, happening once every 6 1/4 years.

Researchers derived a complex mathematical formula for predicting the frequency of large daily stock market movements. Though they believe that their formula rests on a solid theoretical foundation, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

So they tested the formula not just in the U.S. stock market, but also in foreign stock markets as well as in the foreign-exchange arena. Their formula worked in those other markets too. The periods of testing were 80 years.

The researchers believe that their formula captures a universal trait of the investment world: Every market, to a more or less similar degree, is dominated by its largest investors. In this country, for example, the trades made by the large institutional investors are many orders of magnitude greater than any of ours.

And when those large investors together want to get out of stocks, the market will plunge. Yes, those institutional investors might have gotten spooked last Thursday by an erroneous trade. But we're fooling ourselves if we think it's possible to legislate away the herd instinct among the largest investors, or to prevent them from ever being spooked again in the future.

The corollary? To the extent that the regulators' trading curbs and circuit breakers and the like have any effect, it will be merely to postpone the selling for a day or two.

If the researchers are right, regulators are tilting at windmills in trying to find ways of preventing the market from rapid dives. Investors would be far better served by recognizing the big price drops, though infrequent, are an unavoidable price to pay for being invested in the stock market -- and to design their financial plans accordingly. --from marketwatch

Toothbrush Classes

Inmates would arrive at the prison after sentencing, in poor health. Some were held in a county jail for weeks before trial. The feds would pay the municipality a per diem during this holding period. There often was graft with this money. Few had toothbrushes. I found an old microscope in the pharmacy and special ordered quality natural bristled toothbrushes.

I sent out the word on the fast prison grapevine of a toothbrushing class which would give the inmate a break from work and a new toothbrush. Upon arrival at the dental clinic the inmate would brush his teeth at the sink. Next I would swipe a tooth with an instrument and transfer it to a slide, add a drop of blue phenol and have the inmate view the slide through the microscope. Seeing all the werbels got their attention so I could show them how to brush effectively.

Inmates would often arrive at the prison with a black, greasy comb sticking out of a back pocket, serve their time, then depart with a black, greasy comb AND a natural bristled toothbrush sticking out of a back pocket.

Another prison story

New prisoners("fish") had a dental check which was nothing more than an accounting of missing teeth with using a dental mirror. All were afforded optional dental treatment. Many requested an examination including x-rays and instrument probing, fillings, cleaning, scalings, etc. There was a lot of dental trauma from fights, but nobody ever ratted, it was always "I fell down in the shower". Rats could be severely beaten by several men.

One inmate had a missing upper wisdom tooth. I took a 2nd x-ray centering on the corner of his eye. BINGO. The wisdom tooth, thimble sized, was under the cheek bone. I had to carefully remove it completely by feel.

The next day the inmate told the guard that he wanted to talk to me.

He had a BIG smile on his face and said, "Doc, I've had a stiff neck and shoulder for years, have had many manipulations and pills. My pains are GONE !!"

It was referred pain from that ectopic wisdom tooth that caused his suffering.

The Return of King Kong to Manhattan ?

Like Pearl Harbor and 9/11, cyber-thugs raided our financial markets last Thursday and scooped billions of dollars away within 6 minutes.

And we have no clue !!! No clue !!! We are HAND CHECKING each of the millions of transaction tickets for that day.

No, not kidding.